Community Economic Impact:
The Value of Small Schools in Missouri
1) KnowledgeWorks Foundation[1]
in its 2004 review of existing research on the relationship between schools and
economic development concludes that:
< There is a
clear consensus among researchers that education
enhances productivity.
< Research
indicates that quality public schools can help make states and localities more economically competitive.
< Public
schools indisputably influence
residential property values.
<
Emerging evidence suggests that the quality, size, and shape
of school facilities themselves affect
economic development.
2) Other national research[2]
shows that:
<
Communities in which
schools are located—especially small communities—have a distinct economic
advantage over communities in which no school remains
Missouri-specific
research
Impact of School Consolidation on Community Population and Economic Viability
|
|
Metro Towns in
Missouri |
Non-Metro Towns in
Missouri |
||
|
|
With Declining Population 1960-2000 |
With Increasing
Population 1960-2000 |
With Declining Population 1960-2000 |
With Increasing
Population 1960-2000 |
|
Towns >635 Pop in
Which K-12 Districts Are Located in Both 1960 and 2004 |
14% n=12 |
86% n=72 |
23% n=35 |
77% n=115 |
|
Towns <635 Pop in
Which K-12 Districts are Located in Both 1960 and 2004 |
20% n=2 |
80% n=8 |
43% n=40 |
57% n=53 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Towns in Which High
Schools Existed in 1960, but in Which Only Elem or Middle Schools Remained in
2004 |
0% n=0 |
100% n=9 |
65% n=11 |
35% n=6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Towns in Which High
Schools Existed in 1960, but in Which No Schools Remain in 2004[3] |
20% n=2 |
80% n=8 |
80% n=32 |
20% n=8 |
Note: Data in this table were derived from
analysis of US Census data, 1960 through 2000, Population of All Incorporated Places and of Unincorporated Places of
1000 or More, and the Report of
Public Schools of Missouri for 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2003
<
The economic impact of
school consolidation remains an important topic of research, but preliminary
Missouri findings point to an undeniable link between the loss of the school in
a rural community and subsequent decline in community population.
<
Over the past five
decades metro areas have generally gained in population while, across rural
Missouri population has continued to decline. But despite the greater
likelihood of population loss in rural areas, the presence of a school
significantly reduces the prospect for population decline.
<
In Missouri, the last
major wave of school consolidation occurred during the 1960s. In 1960 there were 539 school districts
maintaining a high school. By 2004 that
number had been reduced to fewer than 450.
<
There is a high positive
correlation between change in town population and change in community economic
viability. As one increases or
declines, most often so does the other. Because of the limited census data
available for small towns in 1960 vs. 2000, town population was necessarily
used in this study as a proxy for community economic viability.[4] As modern data collection and census
capabilities increase, so too will the ability to determine the precise impact
of school consolidation on specific economic indicators at the community
level.
<
The focus of the current
study is limited to the impact of loss of the high school district on the
population and economic viability of the town in which the school is located or
that it serves. A study of the impact
of consolidation of six-director elementary districts on community viability
remains as a topic of research.
Preliminary findings show that:
<
Between 1960 and 2004, there were 94
Missouri towns whose K-12 school districts were closed, consolidated, or merged
out of existence. Of those 94 towns:
o
27 (29%) retained an elementary or middle school in 2004 as part of
another school district
o
In 67 of the 94 towns (71%), no school remained in 2004
o
25 towns (27%) were located in metropolitan areas[5];
69 (73%) were located in nonmetro
areas
<
The existence of a K-12
school district increases the likelihood of population gain in the town in
which located and therefore enhanced community economic viability
o
Among all towns having
K-12 school districts in both 1960 and 2004, 75% increased in population, compared to 50% for towns having lost their high school.
o
Among metro towns having
K-12 school districts in both 1960 and 2004, 85% increased in population, compared with 80% for towns having lost their high school.
o
Among non-metro towns
having K-12 school districts in both 1960 and 2004, 71% increased in population, compared with 20% for towns having lost their high school.
<
The effect of school
closing on town population is much more devastating in rural areas than in
metro areas
o
Location of a town in a
metro vs. non-metro area clearly affects whether that town increases or
decreases in population over time.
Despite the outmigration of 54% of St. Louis City’s population over the
5-decade span (1960-2000) and significant declines in several cities within St.
Louis County, metro location has a stimulating effect on town population that
appears to largely eliminate the impact of school loss on the community.
o
In metro areas, only 20% of the towns in which high schools
existed in 1960, but in which no schools remain in 2004, declined in
population, as compared to 56% of
all towns in the same size range across the state.
o
A possible explanation
may lie in the extent to which small communities within metro areas are
incorporated into the larger economy of the metro area. The metro area serves as an economic buffer
beyond the city limits of a small town, an advantage not shared by small rural
towns whose economic fate lies largely within their immediate area.
<
Rural towns having lost
all schools are nearly twice as likely to show significant population decline
compared with those who retained their schools
o
The 2000 population of
each of the 69 nonmetro towns having lost their high school between 1960-2000
was less than 635. In order to more
validly isolate the effect of loss of school on town population, a comparison
was made of towns in the same size cohort having retained a K-12 school
district.
In Metro Areas:
§
20% of the
towns under 635 population that retained
their high school between 1960-2004 declined in population, as did 20% of the metro towns under 635
population that lost their high
school.
In
Non-Metro Areas:
§
43% of the
non-metro towns under 635 population that retained
a high school between 1960-2004 declined in population, while 80% of the non-metro towns that lost
their high school declined in population.
<
Population loss in towns
across rural Missouri is mitigated by retention of an elementary or middle
school, despite having lost their high school
In
Metro Areas:
§
None of the
towns in which high schools were closed, but elementary or middle schools
remained, declined in population from 1960-2000. That compares to 20%
of the towns in which all schools were closed.
In
Non-Metro Areas:
§
65% of the
towns in which high schools were closed, but elementary or middle schools
remained, declined in population from 1960-2000, as compared to 80% of the towns having had all schools
close